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Well, I totally nailed Obama's Veepstakes winner. Senator Barack Obama has chosen longtime Senator Joseph Biden to be his running mate. I love the guy.
That being said, look at the poll numbers. It is a tight race. In a way, it reminds me of the 1980 race for President. Reagan and Carter remained close until Reagan asked, "are you better off now than you were four years ago". The result was one of the greatest electoral victories in American History.
Consequently, the Reagan years represent the last political reallignment. Our nation pushed toward conservative values, ideals, and toward much needed optimism. Rehnquist became Chief Justice on a court that leans conservative to this day. After decades of Democratic control of the House and Senate, in 1994, Republicans gained control of both houses in what can be characterized as nothing short of a revolution.
Where are we now? Twenty-eight years, six Presidential, and thirteen Congressional election cycles later, the race is deceivingly tight. McCain is making a race out of what was expected to be a five month victory tour for Obama.
Those who I have asked have said that this race will come down to content, that this race will be about substance. If that's the case, then this is the race between the wet-earred puppy, and, well, John McCain.
But what about the ground game? Obama has come to be known for his ability to "rally the troops". Look at his success in the caucuses earlier this spring. What it shows is that his supporters represent a greater movement in an election season that has yet to be defined. When it comes down to battleground states in November, its the ground game that will win the election. Obama is far superior.
When thinking about McCain acting as a conservative cheerleader this fall, I slap myself in the forehead. First off, he is a septuagenarian. Secondly, he has been the liberal thorn in the side of the Bush Administration. Perhaps most ironically, he has still been painted as the vital new face of the Bush Administration, representing a third-term.
It is an election season that has yet to be defined. Just the same, Obama has yet to be defined. He is thought to be somewhere between liberal, radical, hippie, and messiah. He lacks definition because he is such a novelty.
Where will it end up? Well, if you look at poll numbers, the best McCain can do is a narrow victory in the electoral college. If you look at the poll numbers, the best Republicans can do in the Senate is to hold serve. This is the best case scenario.
Where does that leave us? If the Dems win 17 or so of the possible 35 races, then they have a filibuster-proof Senate, with a leader, Harry Reid, who will have tremendous influence over Washington politics. If the Dems win 12 of 35, then they will still retain a 55-45 majority. If the Dems lose 28 of the 35 races, then the Senate will change hands; thats not happening.
Reallignment? If the Democrats take those extra five seats from Republicans, get 60 votes in the Senate, and the Presidency, then we are in political reallignment. In the ebb and flow of American politics, the last two reallignments that involved a Democratic president and a filibuster-proof Senate yielded the New Deal and Great Society.
An Obama Presidency would yield Socialism. An Obama Presidency would yield more power in the hands of government. Just as the New Deal defined the era after the Depression, and as the War on Poverty defines LBJ, a new National Health Care system would define Obama's place in history.
I've said since 2006 that we are in political reallignment. This election is the only way to validate that.
Here's something to chew on:
"You know why they call it birth control? Because it's meant to stop a birth from happening nine months later. We know when life begins. Everyone who ever bought a pack of condoms knows when life begins".
God Bless. |
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